DUBAI IN WARTIME

Protecting Its People · Preserving Its Promise

A Comprehensive Report on the UAE’s Crisis Response

and the Resilience of Dubai’s Real Estate Market

April 2026 |  Prepared for Client Presentation

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

When Iran launched coordinated missile and drone strikes against the UAE on 28 February 2026, Dubai faced the most significant security challenge in its modern history. What followed was a masterclass in crisis governance: a layered air-defence shield that intercepted approximately 99% of all incoming projectiles, a calm and confident leadership that spoke directly to its people, a fully activated national emergency management system, an AED 1 billion economic stimulus, and an unbroken flow of humanitarian aid to those suffering beyond its borders.

The real estate market experienced a brief initial pause — but within two weeks, transactions had rebounded by over 51% week-on-week, confirming that Dubai’s structural appeal as a global investment hub remains firmly intact.

~99% Interception Rate

2,700+ Projectiles Fired

AED 1B Economic Stimulus

+51% WoW RE Rebound

2.4% GDP Growth 2026

USD 550M Humanitarian Aid Pledge

  1 | THE THREAT DUBAI FACED

Iran launched retaliatory strikes following Israeli American operations targeting Iranian leadership and military infrastructure. The UAE absorbed 520 ballistic missiles, 2,221 drone attacks, and 26 cruise missiles — a greater volume than any other nation in the conflict.

With approximately 90% of Dubai’s nearly 4 million residents being expatriate nationals, and the city’s economic model built entirely on global confidence, the stakes of Dubai’s response could not have been higher.

  2 | WORLD-CLASS AIR & MISSILE DEFENCE

The UAE operates both the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence) and Patriot missile defence systems — two of the most advanced in the world. These activated immediately on 28 February 2026 and performed with extraordinary effectiveness throughout the conflict.

  Interception Performance

137+ Day 1: Missiles Intercepted

200+ Day 1: Drones Intercepted

~99% Total Interception Rate

3 Fatalities (All UAE)

“We have one of the best defence systems in the world and we are confident that we will be able to continue to support our infrastructure and protect the people who live here.” — UAE Minister of State Reem Al Hashimy, CNN

Where intercepted debris did fall across parts of Palm Jumeirah and near UAE airports, civil defence teams responded rapidly. The total human cost — 3 fatalities and 112 injuries across all UAE territory — is a remarkable outcome given the scale of the barrage.

  3 | EMERGENCY CRISIS MANAGEMENT

The UAE National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority (NCEMA) activated within hours of the first strikes, coordinating real-time public alerts, shelter protocols, infrastructure protection, and airport continuity simultaneously.

  Key Measures Activated

• Early Warning System: Geo-targeted National Early Warning System delivering zone-specific mobile alerts within seconds
• Smart Alert Tones:  Calibrated by time of day — quieter notifications overnight to avoid unnecessary distress
• Airports: ICP emergency business continuity plan activated — 24/7, reinforced staffing and minimal disruption
• Public Spaces: Dubai Mall remained open with high-security shelters; all major hotels enacted shelter-in-place protocols
• Repatriation: 6,000 UAE nationals successfully returned from conflict-affected countries via MoFA/NCEMA operations

  4 | LEADERSHIP & COMMUNICATION

UAE President HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan demonstrated exemplary crisis leadership — appearing on live television to personally visit five civilians injured in the strikes, and walking publicly through the Dubai Mall to signal that normal life continued. His message to the nation was direct:

“I promise everyone that we will emerge stronger than before, without doubt. The UAE is known for its beauty and attractiveness, but it also remains a strong and resilient nation, possessing the determination and resolve to confront challenges.” — HH Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed

Dubai’s expat community — representing 90% of the population — responded with remarkable solidarity. Rather than panic, social media was filled with displays of calm daily life. Emirati commentators praised the loyalty of residents, describing the crisis as having revealed the depth of the bond between the city and its people.

  5 | ECONOMIC SUPPORT PACKAGE

On 30 March 2026, Crown Prince of Dubai HH Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed approved an AED 1 billion (approx. USD 272 million) economic support package with the following measures:

• Fee Deferrals: Deferral of select government fees to reduce immediate financial burden on businesses
• Customs Grace Periods: Extension from 30 days to 90 days, with possibility of further extension
• Residency Incentives: Simplified and expedited permit issuance and renewal to attract and retain skilled talent

Supporting these measures is the UAE’s extraordinary fiscal strength: consolidated net assets of 184% of GDP, government liquid assets exceeding 210% of GDP (including ADIA and Emirates Investment Authority), and an expected fiscal surplus of 2.6% of GDP annually through 2029 (S&P Global Ratings). The World Bank forecasts 2.4% GDP growth for UAE in 2026 — above the GCC average of 1.3%.

  6 | DIPLOMACY & PEACE EFFORTS

The UAE’s diplomatic posture throughout the conflict has been one of principled restraint and tireless advocacy for de-escalation. The UAE confirmed its territory would not be used to attack Iran and served as an active backchannel mediator in Iran-US diplomatic efforts.

• June 2025: UAE condemned Israeli strikes on Iran in the strongest terms, calling for self-restraint and an immediate ceasefire
• March 2026: UAE shepherded UN Security Council Resolution 2817 — condemning Iran’s attacks as a breach of international law
• April 2026: UAE closely followed US-Iran ceasefire announcement, seeking assurances of full compliance and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

  7 | HUMANITARIAN LEADERSHIP

Even while absorbing thousands of missile and drone attacks, Dubai’s International Humanitarian City (Dubai Humanitarian) continued — and expanded — its global aid operations. The UAE’s commitment to human welfare beyond its own borders was uninterrupted.

• Gaza Aid: 22.3 metric tonnes of critical medical supplies dispatched to Gaza, providing relief to 110,000 Palestinians — during the conflict
• WHO Operations: 180 metric tonnes of WHO supplies valued at $3 million dispatched in just five days through Dubai Humanitarian
• Global Reach: Overland convoys to Lebanon, charter flights to Afghanistan, and shipments for Gaza all organised through Dubai’s IHC
• UN Pledge: USD 550 million pledged to the UN 2026 Global Humanitarian Overview — supporting ~135 million people across 23 crisis operations worldwide

  8 | REAL ESTATE: SHOCK, RESILIENCE & RECOVERY

  Pre-War Market Strength

AED 55.18B Jan 2026 Transactions

+43.9% YoY Growth (Jan 2026)

~USD 250B Full Year 2025 Volume

+15.6% 2025 Price Growth

500+ Luxury Sales >$10M

9,800 Millionaires Arrived 2025

  Initial Market Shock (Late Feb – Early Mar 2026)

In the first week of strikes, Dubai property transactions dropped approximately 50% and the Dubai Financial Market Real Estate Index fell over 17%. This reflected short-term perception shifts — the underlying fundamentals of the market had not changed.

  The Recovery — Faster Than Expected

Period	Transaction Value	Movement
Mar 2 (first market open)	AED 2.46B (single day)	Initial recalibration
Week of Mar 9–15	AED 15.66B	+51% week-on-week
Week of Mar 23–29	AED 8.66B	+49% week-on-week

  Why Dubai Real Estate Remains Fundamentally Strong

• Safe-Haven Capital Flows: Every major regional crisis has driven capital into Dubai — Russia-Ukraine 2022 produced a 43% YoY transaction surge
• Tax Advantages: Zero property tax, no capital gains tax, no tax on rental income — structurally unmatched globally
• Rental Yields: 5–7% on prime properties — among the highest of any major global city
• Government Backing: AED 1B stimulus + AED 1 trillion financial stability architecture directly supports the market
• Infrastructure Pipeline: Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, Al Maktoum Airport expansion, and metro growth create long-term structural demand
• 2026 Price Forecast: Analysts forecast 4–6% price growth for full year 2026 — moderated but firmly positive

  9 | CONCLUSION

The 2026 conflict tested every claim Dubai has made about itself: that it is safe, stable, well-governed, humanitarian in spirit, and resilient in the face of adversity. The evidence, taken in full, shows those claims to be substantially vindicated.

A missile defence system intercepting ~99% of incoming projectiles; an emergency authority activated within hours; a head of state visiting the wounded on live television; a billion-dirham economic stimulus within one month; humanitarian aid flowing outward even under bombardment; and a real estate market that absorbed the shock and began recovering within two weeks — these are the hallmarks of a city that has built, tested, and delivered on its promises.

“We are an economy of the future, we always adapt in crisis, we respond, we are flexible… what we are fighting for is something far more compelling.” — UAE Minister of State Lana Nusseibeh, Euronews

Dubai enters the post-conflict recovery phase not diminished, but with its institutions proven, its social fabric intact, and its fundamental appeal as a global hub firmly reaffirmed. For residents, businesses, and investors, the arc of this crisis — challenge, response, resilience, recovery — is precisely the story Dubai has always promised to tell.

Confidential  |  Prepared for Client Presentation |  April 2026  |  Dubai, UAE